I was reading the journal.ie's facebook comments on an article that Ireland will most likely have a gay marriage referendum next year or possible Spring 2015. 95% were very supportive stating the obvious benefits and human rights of gay marriage but the poll was a close but definite "NO", 46% to 44% against gay marriage which is quite surprising.

http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-how-would-you-vote-if-there-was-a-r etc ...

I always presumed that the Irish people would pass the referendum in favour of a YES with ease. There was no doubt in my mind but now there is.

How do you see the Irish people voting? Do you think it will pass?

I don't know how much stock we should put in an online poll. However, the figure is a warning to those who think the question is a shoo-in. The oppontents have kept most of their powder dry, while proponents have been making the running. Emigration has probably resulted in more supporters than opposers leave

Opinion polls don't necessarily reflect true public opinion.
Also, older people who would be much more likely to vote no to marriage
equality are more likely to turn out and vote. You can bet the holy Joes
and Legion of Mary/Iona institute/Opus Dei/Coir/Youth Defense will be rallying their supporters on this vote.

I suspect the result will be pretty close and the turnout of younger voters
may be key as to whether is passes or not.

Yeah a journal poll won't mean much. BUT the vote, whenever it happens, won't be a sure thing. Turnout won't be high and there'll be a highly motivated 'no' vote.

The issue of children will be used to frighten voters.

+1

Well I understand that but I imagine that internet polls are going to get more younger people than a true reflection of the population and I presume most older voters will vote NO.

The base I've heard is around 75% yes. Think there was an official poll around the time of the convention that confirmed this. But that doesn't take into account a 30% turnout.

I think thejournal.ie polls on moral issues are being infiltrated by the American Religious Right, because I don't see any comments opposing gay marriage on the comments section. Another example was the poll on clerical celibibacy where a good majority were opposed to changing it.

What's especially strange is to find this on a website predominately used by the young, who tend to be anti-Establishment and therefore more liberal than their parents. If it's really that close among young people the referendum is doomed.

That kind of makes sense Eomann. The poll does not reflect the comments whatsoever.

I wouldn't take much stock in an online poll from the Journal.ie. Opinion polls have
shown that there is a 2 to 1 majority in favour of equal marriage in Ireland but as I opined, opinion polls don't necessarily transform into similar referendum results.

The anti-gay brigade will be out in force for this one for sure. There's also the sad but likely possibility with referendums in general that if the govt push for a yes vote, some voters will vote no to punish the government given its harsh cutbacks of late.

The key will be the need to get younger (under 40) voters to turn out to counteract the older no brigade. And plenty of younger voters aligned with Coir/Youth Defense etc. will be out in force too.

They will claim allowing gay adoption will destroy the child. Oblivious to the fact children are already being raised by gay couples.

We should be careful not to just assume ALL older people will vote no. Lots of older people have progressive views and also have lesbian and gay family members.

Nobody said ALL.

I really think this might go similar close call to the Seanad Abolition

That worries me, because I think nothing short of a landslide Yes vote for
Gay Marriage would be decisive enough for the psychological state of the nation