I think it will be a no for several reasons:
- the UK govt has gotten the EU and probably Hillary Clinton to criticise the idea. Barroso's statement it would almost impossible for an independent Scotland to join the EU is obviously questionable but will frighten businessmen. Polls show support for EU membership higher in Scotland than England or Wales.
- Declining yields from North Sea oil undermine the economic case for independence. UK oil production has fallen by 50% since 2001 and is expected to decline to 1/3rd of peak levels by 2020. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil#1964.E2.80.93present
- There just isn't the same resentment of the Union in Scotland that there was in Ireland. It is a Protestant country like the rest of the UK, so religious persecution wasn't as much of an issue.
- Latest polls show a 43-36% no vote. It isn't insurmountable but there hasn't been a majority yes in a poll since last August.
- the British army is a big employer in Scotland. While Salmond says it would continue, it isn't clear Westminister would accept this.
- Polls show the 500,000 English people in Scotland will vote no mayb by 74%.