I was thinking of the upcoming referendum in Britain on its withdrawal from the European Union, then thought how it might affect the markets and currency exchange rates.

If Britain leaves, what happens to the value of sterling compared to the Euro and the dollar?

What happens to the value if Britain decides to stay?

It is hard to read the markets and exchange rates as they are anyway.

If Britain leaves the EU would it imply that the EU is weakened by the actions of an erstwhile member? People buying more sterling? Leading to a drop in the value of euro in comparison?

But then if it does, it would have an adverse effect on the British economy.

Likewise, what would happen to the euro/sterling exchange rate if Britain decides to stay? The Euro strengthens?

Perhaps some of the more economically minded people could help shed light on the issue.

I know you stated that you wanted opinions on the markets but I've read a bit about how it might effect us in non-economical ways also.

A major implication for us is the land border with NI. If the UK decide to leave then the border becomes an external border of the EU and also of the UK and both parties might want it strengthened up. Depending on how that goes, it may have a knock on effect on political forces in NI because at the moment the border is pretty invisible. Sinn Fein would prefer the island to be more unified and a newly robust border could threatened that.

You mean a Brexit?

I don't think anybody, expert or otherwise have much of a clue, what will happen. Whats for sure, is that a huge chunk will disappear from the handouts pool for eastern and southern europe.

But it's interesting to speculate.

I have a feeling that the vote will be close but that Britain leaving the EU won't happen. The UK has always had a difficult relationship with the EU. I think it comes from its imperial past.

I agree. I think they don't like to think they need Europe.

I read an interesting article that said they'll end up like Norway or Switzerland - having to maintain their standards of product so that they can still avail of the market while having no say in what happens.

You might also wonder if the EU can survive in its present form or at all, if brexit happens. There are very few net donor countries. Who's going to sign all the structural fund and agri subsidy cheques? Germany and a few Scandis? Lol

It won' matter that much to us, I believe, and here's why.
Yes this would normally be economically worrying (normally) but look at when it's happening; the immediate aftermath of very big economical crash caused by people in positions of power cashing in our entire economy and running off with it.

if Brexit can have negative effects on Ireland's economy (which I believe it can, and that they could be quite bad) it's happening at a time where economical disasters are at at their "cheapest". In other words, we've just been hit by one disaster, we've not done a lot of rebuilding just yet (some, but not a lot) thus we don't really have anything worth destroying at the minute.
If our big neighbor wants to leave the club we're both in, then right now is the best possible time to do it. It's not going to effect the "pasturage" of our economy which can only be eaten down so far anyways (i.e., the labour force, the academically qualified, the small businesses and the spendable cash of the many vulnerable demographs have to feed themselves and live their lives).
This is literally the part of our economy that our government decided to shoulder the crash, and we're being absolutely milled anyways. If the economy gets "worse" it wont effect those who already cannot cope anyways: they'll go from not being able to cope whilst supporting the country's economic recovery, to, not being about to cope whilst supporting the country's economical recovery, at a slightly slower rate.

Sorry Greenman but that is a deeply, deeply misinformed post.

The 'economy' is not one amorphous lump. Great Recession aside, Britain is our major trading partner. Anything that endangered or reduced that trade is potentially disastrous. To suggest that the fact that we are in a somewhat depressed state somehow inoculates us from the potential damage of a Brexit is plainly preposterous, if anything the opposite is true.

We remain one of the world's wealthiest countries, as was much pointed out during the migrants debate. No, nothing to protect here at all. Nothing at all.

Do you buy much from British UK sites? Well you won't be afforded the same consumer rights you would get from buying an EU site.

Then why do people act like it is? they literally refer to "the" economy, just like you'd say "the" climate "the" country "the" banking system. Is the economy not tied to the value of currency, to inflation, to GDP figures etc? (sincere question)
There seems to be a pretty strong list of reasons why a person would describe an economy and one amorphous object.


I didn't say it inoculates us, I said it's at it's "cheapest".

I'll put it this way, explain to me, as if I were a 4 year old, why Britain leaving the EU would definitely effect our trade negatively as opposed to, yes it would shake things up, but the shake up would be like anything else, reaching equilibrium becasue of import and export being proportionally balanced to things like currency exchange and value of goods. I mean what are we trading with UK, precious metals?
it's seems to be what, beef, timber, electronics? and a bit of tourism?
Have you ever met a local, wealthy beef farmer? like living within 10 houses from you in any direction?
I was raised in the countryside and I've never even met one. The market is probably a handful of families with incredibly high net worths. And what do tiny amount of very wealthy people do to economies?
Ask Bernie Sanders.
...or even the lower classes of 1790's France.

(I realize my posts are ridiculous, I'm really just posting them to 'learn' as it were)

Not ridiculous mate.. I do the same thing myself. Provoke people into giving their opinions. Then i dissect their opinions & try to learn from them, all part of the game really..

If I feel you are provoking me to give my opinion, when I already gave my opinion would only make me retreat from you and not engage.

Some good posts here, Thanks for the food for thought.